Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Djibouti
  • Algeria
  • Congo (Kinshasa)
  • South Africa
  • Egypt
  • Equatorial Guinea
  • Mauritius
  • Gabon
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Niger
  • Chad
  • Morocco

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,354$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(125 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $24$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(0.156 \times 10^{0.042t}\) (doubling rate \(7.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,826$ on 2020-05-31

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,394$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(744 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,133.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,133.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $653$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(132 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{580.0}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 29.0)}}\) (asimptote \(580.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,993$ on 2020-05-31

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,070$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(53.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,963.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 111.2)}}\) (asimptote \(29,963.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $72$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(8.95 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 62.8)}}\) (asimptote \(121.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,550$ on 2020-05-31

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $32,683$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(449 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{465,888.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 121.9)}}\) (asimptote \(465,888.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $683$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(17.9 \times 10^{0.027t}\) (doubling rate \(11.2\) days)

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $15,191$ on 2020-05-31

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,985$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(511 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{125,413.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 105.8)}}\) (asimptote \(125,413.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $959$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(83.2 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,173.8}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 53.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,173.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,989$ on 2020-05-31

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,306$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(22.8 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,360.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 72.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,360.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(1.42 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14.7}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 25.7)}}\) (asimptote \(14.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,094$ on 2020-05-31

Mauritius⮸

Population $1,271,768$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $335$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(164 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{333.7}{1 + 10^{-0.103 (t - 15.2)}}\) (asimptote \(333.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(5.35 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9.8}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 11.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3$ on 2020-05-31

Gabon⮸

Population $2,225,734$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,655$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(22.2 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,892.6}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 65.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,892.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(0.616 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.0\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18.7}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 55.7)}}\) (asimptote \(18.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,916$ on 2020-05-31

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Niger recovered 89%
Chad recovered 44%
Morocco recovered 35%
Algeria recovered 5%

Niger⮸

Population $24,206,644$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $958$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(359 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{901.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 15.1)}}\) (asimptote \(901.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(11.1 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.7\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 35.5)}}\) (asimptote \(73.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $55$ on 2020-05-31

Chad⮸

Population $16,425,864$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $778$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(50.2 \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(11.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{829.4}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 33.2)}}\) (asimptote \(829.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $65$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(16.2 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{64.3}{1 + 10^{-0.096 (t - 13.1)}}\) (asimptote \(64.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $222$ on 2020-05-31

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,807$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(974 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.1\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,095.9}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 42.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,095.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $205$ on 2020-05-31

Best fit exponential: \(66.8 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.8\) days)

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{193.8}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 20.5)}}\) (asimptote \(193.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,143$ on 2020-05-31